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Used car prices UK forecast 2026 — will they fall further?

UK used-car prices fell roughly 12% in 2024 and have stabilised through the first half of 2026. The big question for buyers is whether there's more downside to come. Based on AutoAlpha's tracking of every active UK listing across all major segments, here's what the data actually says.

SB Written by Salah Baaziz · Updated · Editorial standards

Where prices are now (Q2 2026)

Median UK used-car asking prices vs Q1 2024:

Petrol hatchbacks (3-5yr old): -8% YoY. Stable last 90 days.

Diesel saloons (5-7yr old): -11% YoY. Still falling, slowly.

Compact SUVs: -6% YoY. Bottomed out around February.

Premium executive (5 Series, A6, E-Class 5-8yr): -14% YoY. Big falls; some now look like genuine bargains.

Used EVs (2-4yr old): -22% YoY. Largest falls; appears to be bottoming.

Used hybrids: -3% YoY. Most stable segment.

Run live data via the scraper.

What's driving the price changes

Supply normalisation — the post-Covid new-car squeeze ended in late 2023. New car waiting lists evaporated, used demand softened, used prices fell.

Interest rate sensitivity — many UK buyers finance via PCP/HP. As base rates pushed up, monthly affordability dropped, which pushed used prices down.

EV oversupply — fleet returns flooded the used EV market in 2024-2025. Combined with weak retail demand for EVs led to outsized price drops in the segment.

Diesel decline — ULEZ expansion, fleet preference for petrol/hybrid, and Euro 7 looming have crushed older diesel resale.

Forecast — what we expect through 2026

Petrol hatches and small SUVs: Flat to +2%. The bottom is in. Don't wait for further falls.

Older diesels (pre-2019): Another 5-10% downside possible. ULEZ areas will continue to drag.

Premium executive: Expect a 3-5% recovery as the worst of the price falls is over. Buy now if you want one.

Used EVs: Bottomed in Feb-Apr 2026. Slow recovery (+3-5%) by year-end as the supply-demand mismatch unwinds.

Used hybrids: Flat. Demand strong, supply constrained.

Confidence: medium. Forecast assumes base rates start falling in Q3 2026 (per market pricing) and no major economic shock.

Best time to buy in 2026

Now-July 2026: Premium executive and used EVs at their best value of the cycle. Buy now if you want either.

August-September 2026: Plate-change month (Sep) typically softens prices for 4-6 weeks as trade-ins flood in. Best window for non-premium hatches and SUVs.

November-December 2026: Weakest demand period. Dealer year-end gives some flex on negotiation. Less inventory variety.

Worst time: March 2026 (plate-change demand) and April (post-tax-year-start spending surge).

See our best time to buy guide for the full seasonality calendar.

What this means for sellers

Selling a petrol hatch or hybrid: List now. Prices are stable to rising.

Selling a diesel: Sell sooner rather than later. Each month older means £100-£300 less.

Selling a premium executive saloon: Wait if possible — prices may recover modestly through year-end.

Selling a used EV: Hold if you can. The trough is in.

See PX vs private for the sale-channel decision.

Frequently asked questions

How accurate are used car price forecasts?+
AutoAlpha's past 12-month accuracy on segment-level price-direction calls has been around 70-75%. £-amount accuracy is lower — typically ±5% on a 6-month forecast.
Should I buy a used car now or wait?+
Depends on segment. For petrol hatches, small SUVs, hybrids — buy now, the bottom is in. For older diesels, premium executive saloons, used EVs — current prices are favourable relative to the last 5 years.
Will used EV prices keep falling?+
Probably not significantly. The Q1 2026 floor was the worst level since the pandemic. Demand has started to firm up as ICE-to-EV switchers re-enter the market.
What's the impact of Euro 7 on used car prices?+
Euro 7 takes effect mid-2026 for new cars. Existing cars are unaffected mechanically. The main impact: older Euro 5 diesels will face faster depreciation as ULEZ areas expand.
How does the new car market affect used prices?+
New car supply increases → fleet returns increase → used supply increases → used prices fall. We're seeing this in 2026. The reverse will happen when new car supply tightens again (likely 2027-2028 under Euro 7 transitions).